Every contract figure displayed in the War Room represents a real awarded contract — not an estimate or projection. Contract data is sourced from official US government databases updated on a daily basis.

Each record includes a documented recipient, dollar amount, performance period, and awarding agency. No contract is fabricated or inferred.

Pre-award signals are derived from official US government procurement records. These are publicly filed documents subject to federal transparency requirements, updated daily.

Signal classification (BUDGET REQUEST, MARKUP, ESCALATION, CONTRACT AWARD) is based on documented language in the source records — not editorial judgment.

Escalation scores are calculated from verified conflict event data recorded by internationally recognized conflict monitoring organizations. They are not AI-generated estimates or editorial opinions.

Each score reflects documented event counts, fatality data, and conflict type classifications drawn from structured databases of real-world incidents.

Lobbying figures are sourced from federal disclosure requirements. Organizations receiving federal contracts above defined thresholds are legally required to disclose lobbying expenditures.

Revolving door data is sourced from independent investigative journalism organizations that compile and maintain structured records of government-to-industry personnel movements.

Defense spending data covers all 195 UN member states and is sourced from internationally recognized defense research institutions. Data is updated annually and cross-referenced against national budget disclosures where available.

Coverage includes defense budget as percent of GDP, absolute spending in USD, armed forces size, nuclear status, treaty alliances, and US foreign military sales history.

Investment signals are produced by a rules-based model with defined, auditable inputs. The model does not use a language model or neural network to generate its output.

Inputs to the signal calculation include: current escalation score, contract award velocity over a trailing window, congressional pre-award signal count, and company conflict dependency rating. Each input is traceable to a verified public record.

Signals are labeled BULLISH, CAUTION, or AVOID. A BULLISH signal means the model's inputs meet defined thresholds — it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Simulation methodology is based on documented historical defense sector performance across 8 conflict cycles: Gulf War 1991, Bosnia 1995, Kosovo 1999, Afghanistan 2001, Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Ukraine 2014, Ukraine 2022. Proprietary model — coefficients derived from documented defense sector performance across these cycles. Simulations are illustrative and not predictive of future returns.

Data sourced from annual reports and verified DOD budget data. Not financial advice.